The Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll showed Obama leading his Republican challenger Mitt Romney in:
- Florida 51%-45%,
- in Ohio 50%-44%, and
- in Pennsylvania 53%-42%.
The poll indicated that only 4% of likely voters in each of the three states had yet to decide on a candidate to support.
Among Romney backers,
- 10% in Florida and Ohio
- 9% in Pennsylvania said they could change their mind before November.
Among Obama’s supporters,
- 11% Florida said they could change their minds, compared to
- 13% in Ohio and
- 15% in Pennsylvania.
“If today were November 6, President Barack Obama would sweep the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and – if history is any guide – into a second term in the Oval Office,” Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, wrote in a statement accompanying the poll’s release.
Brown cited better-than-average unemployment rates in Ohio and Florida as possible factors in Obama’s lead there, writing that “The president is running better in the key swing states than he is nationally.”
Among self-identified independents, Obama edges Romney in;
- Florida 47%-46%,
- Ohio 47%-44%.
- Pennsylvania is more robust, 58%-36%.
A gender gap persists in all three states, where women are more likely to back Obama and men go stronger for Romney.
In all three battlegrounds, an enthusiasm gap persists between the two candidates.
- 65% of Obama supporters in Florida say they strongly favor the president,
- 49% of Romney’s backers say they strongly favor the Republican candidate.
- In Ohio, 60% of Obama backers were “strongly supporting” him,
- 42% who said the same for Romney.
- In Pennsylvania, 59% were strong supporters of Obama and
- 41% were strongly supporting Romney.
On the economy, voters are split between Obama and Romney.
- 47% of Floridians said Romney would do a better job handing economic issues,
- 45% sided with Obama.
- 46% of Ohio voters said Obama would better handle to economy, and
- 45% picked Romney.
- Pennsylvanians gave Obama higher marks on the economy (48%)
- 44% sided with Romney on the economy.
“All this matters because half of all likely voters say the economy is the most important issue to their vote, far ahead of any other issue. The saving grace for Gov. Mitt Romney is that he roughly breaks even with the president on who is best on the economy,” Brown said.